Electric Vehicles key to decarbonization but facing shortages

Electric vehicles are a key technology to decarbonize road transport, a sector that accounts for 16% of global emissions. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the sale of electric cars, with high ratings, great model availability and great performance. Electric passenger cars are growing in popularity – we estimate that 13% of new cars sold in 2022 will be electric; If the progress recorded in the last two years is continued, CO2 emissions from cars could be on the order of zero by 2050. However, electric cars is not a global phenomenon. Sales in developed and developing countries are slow due to high purchase costs and lack of charging infrastructure.

Electric vehicle sales reach record high in 2021, despite supply shortages and ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Compared to 2020, sales have almost doubled to 6.6 million (market share of almost 9%), bringing the number of electric vehicles on the road to 16.5 million. The share of electric car sales increased by 4 percent in 2021. A zero-emissions by 2050 scenario puts more than 300 million electric vehicles in operation in 2030 and electric vehicles account for 60% of new car sales. To get into the Net Zero track, their market share needs to grow less than 6% per year. Sales in 2021 are highest in China with 3.3 million (triple sales in 2020), followed by Europe with 2.3 million sold in 2021 (from 1.4 million in 2020). In the United States, electric vehicle sales doubled their market share to 4.5% in 2021, reaching 630,000 sold. In emerging markets, sales of electric vehicles have more than doubled, but prices remain low. In the first half of 2022, the market has increased further, we estimate that the share of global electric vehicle sales will be around 13%. Global electric vehicles in 2021 consumed about 50 TWh of electricity, which represents less than 0.5% of the total electricity currently used worldwide. Electric vehicles displace about 0.3 mb/d of fuel in 2021. Electric vehicles need to displace more than 7 Mb/d of fuel in 2030 to meet Net Zero conditions.

Translate »